✦ Private ClientLive indicator · Precious metals

Metal Ratios

Three ratios that tell you which part of the metals market is leading, and which is lagging.

Live charts via TradingView · daily candles, one year

This week · daily closesUpdated every evening after the US close

The ratios this week, in context

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CloseGold
$/oz		Silver
$/oz		Gold /
silver		GDX /
GLD		GDXJ /
GDX
Mon 28 Sept Silver −4.5% in a few hours. Gold breaks its head-and-shoulders neckline at $4,375; measured target about $3,975.
Wed 30 Sept Inflation day: soft core PCE. Silver breaks below $61.0. Brent November expires.
1–7 Oct Golden Week: Shanghai closed, no Chinese physical buying.
Fri 2 Oct Payrolls +29K vs +90K, unemployment 4.2%. Fed hike odds 28% → 15%. Dollar index 101.93.
Thu 8 Oct Shanghai reopens.
Wed 14 Oct US CPI: the ratios’ next inflation test.
27–28 Oct FOMC.

Gold / silver

How many ounces of silver buy one ounce of gold. When the ratio rises, silver is lagging; when it falls, silver is leading.

Gold spot divided by silver spot (TradingView TVC data).

Silver is half monetary metal, half industrial input. It usually outruns gold in a rally and falls harder in a sell-off, so the ratio tends to fall when the metals are in demand and rise when fear or a strong dollar dominates. A falling ratio in a rising market is a healthy sign; a rising ratio while gold climbs means the move rests on gold alone.

Demand shifts can move it too. In India, the world’s largest silver buyer, record gold prices are pushing households toward silver. The Indian bullion and jewellers’ association expects silver buying this Diwali season to rise 17–18% on last year, and silver prices in rupees are up about 160% in two years. As one industry voice put it to The Economic Times: “if gold is out of reach, silver offers a way to still participate in the precious metals rally.” That kind of substitution pulls the ratio down from the demand side, whatever the Fed does.

Miners / gold

The large gold miners (GDX) against gold itself (GLD). Miners are gold with leverage: their profits rise faster than the metal when it climbs, and fall faster when it drops.

VanEck Gold Miners ETF divided by SPDR Gold Shares.

When this ratio rises, investors believe the gold price will hold long enough to lift miners’ earnings. When it falls while gold is still rising, the market is doubting the move, or worrying about miners’ own costs: energy, above all diesel, and wages. It often turns before gold does, which makes it an early warning.

Juniors / majors

Small explorers and developers (GDXJ) against the large producers (GDX). This is the appetite-for-risk gauge inside the sector.

VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF divided by VanEck Gold Miners ETF.

Juniors need financing and optimism. When this ratio rises, money is reaching for the riskiest end of the sector, typical of a mature rally. When it rolls over, investors are pulling back to the safer producers first. A falling juniors ratio is usually the first stage of a broader miner correction.

Read the three together. Gold/silver says how broad the metals move is. Miners/gold says whether equity investors believe it. Juniors/majors says how much risk they are willing to take on it.

Context: why the desk treats ratios as confirmation

A ratio is never a trigger on this desk. It confirms or questions a view built on real rates, the dollar and physical demand. When the ratios agree with that view, size up with more conviction; when they disagree, the view needs a second look, not an automatic exit.

Ratios are relative prices, so they move for reasons that have nothing to do with gold’s direction: an industrial slowdown hits silver, a diesel spike hits miners’ margins, an equity sell-off drags GDX regardless of the metal. Read them against the calendar of the week, which is what the block at the top of this page does.

Sources

Educational content to support your own research and decisions. Not financial advice.

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